June 1, 2003
What is very interesting is how similar, yet complete opposite, people are now versus three years ago.
Three years ago, before the big crash, people were high on life, believing that the world economies had permanently changed for the better, and we would never see bad times again. People with no experience, and no real idea how the world works, were being hailed as experts. Investors fell in love with thousands, maybe millions, of companies that blew money as fast as people would throw it at them.
We've seen some people do very stupid stuff at parties -- and at economics / investing / business.
Then the cops (Greenspan) busted up the party, the party was over, and people came down off of their highs (lost business and jobs) and started to sober up. "What happened?" and "How'd that happen?" everyone asked.
Now everyone has hangovers and is swearing off good times. "We'll never see good times again" everyone swears. "I'll never invest in stocks again". People that in 2000 were convinced we would never see bad times, are now convinced that we will never see good times.
Very similar, yet opposite.
Who can say that all those parties we went to when we were young and foolish didn't teach us anything? We'd get drunk, the cops would bust up the party, we would sober up, swear off partying, and then later, start getting ready for the next party. This cycle repeated itself over and over, party after party.
It seems to me that the experienced economists, and partiers, instead of sitting around talking about how bad things are and how we will never recover, are currently getting ready for the next party! Economic cycles, just like parties, repeat themselves over and over.
If I had no morals, I would be a liquor salesman during good times and a pharmacist, selling hangover remedies, during bad times.
Who's with me on planning the next party?
Have you heard of "contrarian indicators"? Do you think all this present doom and gloom is a "contrarian indicator"? No, couldn't be. The optimism in the summer of 2000 was a good contrarian indicator.
If you look at leading indicators -- the stock market and consumer confidence -- both are way up.
At High Tech Services, we saw the top coming back in 2000. As painful as it was, we started to make cuts while others "partied on". At the same time, one of our biggest competitors, was doing news interviews on how they were going to open a dozen new offices. Needless to say, that competitor did not see it coming and is no longer in business.
For the last several years we have been preparing our company for the next big party (economic cycle). We have worked on written operating procedures, standards, training, -- technical, project management, and business systems.
If you are "hands on" with technology then there are a lot of new things to learn with .NET -- plus all the old stuff that is already on your list to learn. If you are a manager there are a lot of project management books and resources to go through, in addition to all the technical stuff you have to learn. If you are an architect you really must be busy as you have to be an expert at all three. If you run the business side of things then you are probably learning about marketing, policies and procedures, "business systems", accounting, and information systems.
There are those that sit around and feel sorry for themselves and those that use "bad times" to improve themselves so that when opportunity knocks -- they are ready. Which are you doing?
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